If you've followed PTNTS in the past, you have a pretty good idea how this goes. Basically, lots of flailing around the Mendoza Line.
Case in point: After a 4-1 start, BH got tagged with a 1-4 record last week. Meanwhile, The Skinny took it on the chin at 1-4 as well.
Fresh from a relaxing sojourn abroad, Skin finally feels ready to enlighten us with his gambling wisdom by offering an explanation for each of his picks. So let's get this (shit)show on the road.
Blatant Homerism--Week 3
(Last week: 1-4; Overall: 5-5)
Navy at Texas State (+10)
Obviously, I liked this proposition a lot better when the Bobcats were getting 12.5 points, but I'll still play this one as it lays. Texas State coach Dennis Franchione has made it a point to prep his team for this game since the start of fall camp, scheduling punching bag Arkansas-Pine Bluff to start the season and maintaining an open date last week.
Fran turned into a punchline at Texas A&M, but he's actually not bad when he's got a game circled in his day book.
The pick: Don't miss this golden opportunity to bet TSU.
Wake Forest (+14) at Utah State
After opening the year on the Bayou Desiard, the Demon Deacons are now traveling to wherever the Aggies call home. Who is scheduling these games?
Wake looks very much like the worst Power 5 team in the country. But I don't think people have caught up to the reality that this edition of USU doesn't match up with the squad that once had Gene Chizik shaking in his leather jacket.
The Deacs don't have many possible wins left this season. Can't afford to lay an egg here.
The pick: If Wake can't keep this within two touchdowns, sheesh…
West Virginia (+3.5) at Maryland
I still don't think the market has caught up to the Mountaineers, who entered the season undervalued. With Clint Trickett under center, Dana Holgorsen's offense has been far more dangerous than last year's popgun attack.
At some point, rolling with Holgo is going to burn me. At least I'll enjoy the ride.
The pick: 'Eers upset (as in beating a favored team, not "displeased").
Houston (+17.5) at BYU
Tricky spot for the Cougars, who are on a short week after playing two straight road contests to open the year. Plus, this one is sandwiched between a high-profile win over Texas and a revenge game versus Virginia.
The pick: Cougars of the Houston variety.
Tennessee at Oklahoma (-20.5)
Trust me, I've looked for reasons all week not to back the Sooners. Everything about this game screams OU pouring it on. The Vols don't look ready to block the Crimson and Cream's nasty defensive front. Conversely, OU mammoth offensive line should steamroll UT's undersized front four. Factor in that Bob Stoops' team is playing for style points, and you've got a recipe for a statement game.
If OU drops this one, put it on me.
The pick: OU, 42-14.
The Skinny--Week 3
(Last week: 1-4; Overall: 3-7)
Georgia at South Carolina (+5.5)
At first glance, this line made no sense to me, especially considering Vegas opened the line at 2.5. But, as every 'Cocks fan will remind you, they have the coaching advantage in this matchup and are playing at home. My guess is Vegas knows something here; the gambling public overreacts to Week 1 results.
The pick: South Carolina.
Iowa State (+10.5) at Iowa
Two really bad teams in this year's Cyhawk rivalry. Not sure either team is worthy of being installed as a double-digit favorite over anyone. The Cyclones always seem to play well in this game.
The pick: 'Clones.
Louisville (-6.5) at UVA
Yes, I know the Cavs looked decent in their opener, but then UCLA struggled to beat Memphis at home last weekend. UCLA was massively overrated to start the season.
The pick: I think Louisville wins by double digits on the road.
Kansas at Duke (-14.5)
I don't love taking Duke by more than two touchdowns, but this is not a week in which I feel particular conviction about many games. I will take my chances with David Cutcliffe versus Charlie Weis.
The pick: Dukies.
East Carolina (+10.5) at Va Tech
Classic letdown situation with the Hokies coming off possibly their biggest road win under Frank Beamer. I'm not buying the Hokies just yet. Sure, they did what they needed to do last week, but that wasn't a vintage Ohio State team that the Hokies faced last week.
The pick: Pirates.