This looks like the week to fade BH.
On to this week’s picks:
BLATANT HOMERISM--Week 4
(Last week: 3-2; Overall: 11-4)
Maryland at West Virginia (-17)
The Terps got steamrolled by the last spread offense they faced, giving up nearly 700 yards in total offense to Bowling Green. The Mountaineers, who are coming off a bye, run the spread and have a sneaky good defense to boot.
The pick: ‘Eers roll.
Northern Illinois at Boston College (-5)
The Huskies caught the eye of the college football world last week by putting a scare into Ohio State in a disgusting affair that featured a combined 7 turnovers. Five went NIU's way. Does that sound sustainable?
After a physical game with the Buckeyes, NIU now faces a long road trip to the East Coast.
The pick: Against NIU as much as for BC.
USC at Arizona State (+5.5)
Before the season started, the Sun Devils might have been a short favorite here. Not enough has changed since then to justify such a dramatic swing in the line.
The pick: Take the points all day long.
Georgia Southern at Idaho (+16)
Ah, a weather bet – arguably my favorite kind of play.
The high temperature in Moscow, Idaho, on Saturday is projected to be in the 50s and should be in the high 40s around kickoff for this game. That's about 30 degree difference from Statesboro, Georgia. Sounds like a crappy road trip for a team traveling across three time zones.
The pick: Don't think of it as a bet on Paul Petrino, but more of a play on Mother Nature.
*EDIT: I completely forgot Iowa plays in the Kibbie Dome. I'm an idiot. Again, fade.*
Vanderbilt (+24.5) at Ole Miss
I'll happily fade the Rebels coming off their somewhat fluky win over Alabama. On the other side of the field, the national perception of the Commodores is probably skewed by their opening loss to Western Kentucky, which falls into the same category of fluky as Ole Miss' win last week.
Don't get me wrong, Vandy isn't particularly good. The 'Dores do play solid defense, though, and should frustrate the Rebs deep enough into the game to cover.
The pick: Ole Miss by not enough.
THE SKINNY--Week 4
(Last week: 3-2; Overall: 8-7)
Tennessee (+1.5) at Florida
Massachusetts (+28) at Notre Dame
Oklahoma State (-3) at Texas
UCLA at Arizona (+3)
Brigham Young (+5.5) at Michigan